Skip to content

Shiny Rates Calculatorin Pokémon Polished Crystal

Estimate your chance to find a shiny based on attempts and odds.

Shiny odds and available bonuses vary by game and method. Use this calculator to see the base rate and any supported bonuses for the game you selected, then enter your attempts to calculate your cumulative chance. A rate such as 1/512 is the chance for each eligible encounter or egg, not a guarantee that a shiny will appear within 512 attempts. Compare methods and attempts here to set realistic expectations for your hunt.

Wild, gift and static Pokémon, plus the Battle Tower-style exceptions the ROM excludes.

Odds

Fixed at 1 in 4,096 — this game has no odds setting.

Encounters, eggs, or trades you expect to make.

Bonuses

Hunt progress

This game has no chain or streak bonus to track.

Per-attempt odds

Odds per roll1 in 4,096
Probability per attempt0.02%
Effective odds~1 in 4,096
Expected attempts4,096

Cumulative chance

At least one shiny2.41%
Attempts for 50% chance2,839
Attempts for 90% chance9,431

Things that change how you read these numbers

  • The Shiny Charm adds to the numerator rather than rerolling: 48/65536 against a base of 16/65536.
  • Masuda is a breeding-only bonus worth another 80/65536 — it is why Mr. Pokémon hands out a non-OT Ditto.
  • BATTLETYPE_NEVER_SHINY and BATTLETYPE_GROTTO battles never produce a shiny, whatever the rate.
  • Wonder-traded Pokémon roll 1/1024 outright; the charm, and Masuda, do not apply to them.

Every number above is read from this ROM's own source rather than assumed from another game. The full explanation, including what the game disables, is in the shiny rates guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the shiny odds in Polished Crystal?
The rate is fixed at 1 in 4,096 for this game.
Do 1-in-N odds mean I get a shiny in N attempts?
No. Every attempt is independent, so the odds never "reset" in your favour: with flat 1-in-N odds, N attempts still only gives you about a 63% chance of at least one shiny. This calculator shows the real cumulative odds for the number of attempts you enter.
How do the shiny bonuses work?
Shiny Charm adds 32 to the numerator over the same denominator; Masuda Method adds 80 to the numerator over the same denominator. Because the bonus adds rather than multiplies, the exact odds depend on which bonuses are active — the calculator applies the values this game actually uses.
Do all methods use the same odds?
Wild encounter: the selected rate, bonuses apply. Egg: the selected rate, bonuses apply. Wonder trade: 1 in 1,024, bonuses do not apply.