Shiny Rates Calculatorin Pokémon SoulGold

Estimate your chance to find a shiny based on attempts and odds.

Shiny odds and available bonuses vary by game and method. Use this calculator to see the base rate and any supported bonuses for the game you selected, then enter your attempts to calculate your cumulative chance. A rate such as 1/512 is the chance for each eligible encounter or egg, not a guarantee that a shiny will appear within 512 attempts. Compare methods and attempts here to set realistic expectations for your hunt.

Wild encounters, statics and eggs all roll at the option above.

Rate set in page 3 of the options menu.

1 in 256 per roll

Encounters, eggs, or trades you expect to make.

Bonuses

Hunt progress

Per-attempt odds

Odds per roll1 in 256
Rolls per encounter1
Probability per attempt0.39%
Effective odds~1 in 256
Expected attempts256

Cumulative chance

At least one shiny32.39%
Attempts for 50% chance178
Attempts for 90% chance589

Things that change how you read these numbers

  • A new game starts on 1/256; the rate applies to wild encounters, statics and eggs.
  • 12× trades are the fastest shinies in the game on a default save — about 1 in 21, before anything else.
  • Fishing chains do nothing in this build: the bonus is present in `src/fishing.c` but `I_FISHING_CHAIN` is FALSE in `include/config/fishing.h`.
  • The rerolls apply where the Pokémon is generated with you as its original trainer.
  • `SHINY_ODDS 512` (1/128) and `RELEASE_SHINY_ODDS 256` are the mon-data fallbacks in `GetCurrentShinyOdds()`; generation uses the option above.
  • The Shiny Genome from the Battle Café turns a Pokémon shiny outright — no rolls involved.

Every number above is read from this ROM's own source rather than assumed from another game. The full explanation, including what the game disables, is in the shiny rates guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the shiny odds in SoulGold?
SoulGold makes the rate a setting: Shiny odds, found in page 3 of the options menu, offers 1 in 256, 1 in 512, 1 in 1,024. A new game starts at 1 in 256.
Do 1-in-N odds mean I get a shiny in N attempts?
No. Every attempt is independent, so the odds never "reset" in your favour: with flat 1-in-N odds, N attempts still only gives you about a 63% chance of at least one shiny. This calculator shows the real cumulative odds for the number of attempts you enter.
How do the shiny bonuses work?
Shiny Charm grants 2 extra rolls; Lure grants 1 extra roll; DexNav bonus roll grants 4 extra rolls on 4% of encounters. They are independent attempts at the same rate rather than flat additions, so two extra rolls at 1/512 work out to about 1 in 171 per encounter.
Do all methods use the same odds?
Wild encounter: the selected rate, bonuses apply. In-game trade: 12× the selected rate, bonuses do not apply.